SCFI Index Declines for Third Consecutive Week: Excess Capacity Drags Down U.S. Route Rates

Source: Shipping Gazette 2025/07/03

Overcapacity on U.S. trade lanes continues to pressure freight rates as the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) extends its losing streak to three weeks.

Latest SCFI Data (June 27 Release):

• Composite Index: 1,861.51 points (↓0.43% WoW, third weekly decline)

• Major East-West Routes:
    · U.S. West Coast: $2,578/FEU (↓$194, -6.99% WoW)
    · U.S. East Coast: $4,717/FEU (↓$635, -11.86% WoW)
    · Europe: $2,030/TEU (↑$195, +10.62% WoW)
    · Mediterranean: $2,985/TEU (↓$78, -2.54% WoW)

Intra-Asia Rates (per TEU):

·Japan Kansai: $312 (↓$3)

 · Japan Kanto: $317 (↓$2)

 · Southeast Asia: $456 (↓$4)

 · Korea: $136 (unchanged)

Market Analysis:

1. U.S. Route Challenges

"Vessel oversupply vs. weakening demand" dynamic persists

Spot rates projected to decline further:
• U.S. West Coast potentially falling to ~$2,450/FEU
• U.S. East Coast approaching ~$4,500/FEU

Key factors:
• Uncertainty around U.S. tariff policies
• Extended suspension of retaliatory tariffs
• Enterprises delaying shipments post-inventory replenishment

2. Recovery Prospects

• Carrier strategy: Capacity management through blank sailings

• Q3 Hope: Traditional peak season may revive deferred orders

• July target: Lines positioning for mid-July rate hikes

3. European Route Outlook

• Current approach: Half-monthly incremental increases

• Rate stability depends on: Non-redeployment of U.S.-supporting vessels

• Carriers planning mid-July rate restoration

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